Round of 32 K-74 Prediction vs reality
Pregame Germany 82.4% Paraguay 17.6% Lean: Germany Reality Paraguay advanced Germany 1, Paraguay 1; Paraguay advanced
Paraguay beat the pregame lean toward Germany.100,000 simulations loaded.
Knockout bracket
Single most likely slot occupants with simulation-backed what-if picks. The left value is a team's chance to reach that match; the right value is its chance to win that matchup.
Round of 32
Round of 32 K-77 Prediction vs reality
Pregame France 87.0% Sweden 13.0% Lean: France Reality France advanced France 3, Sweden 0
Prediction matched the advancing team.Round of 32 K-73 Prediction vs reality
Pregame South Africa 29.3% Canada 70.7% Lean: Canada Reality Canada advanced South Africa 0, Canada 1
Prediction matched the advancing team.Round of 32 K-75 Prediction vs reality
Pregame Netherlands 59.4% Morocco 40.6% Lean: Netherlands Reality Morocco advanced Netherlands 1, Morocco 1; Morocco advanced
Morocco beat the pregame lean toward Netherlands.Round of 32 K-83 Prediction vs reality
Pregame Portugal 69.4% Croatia 30.6% Lean: Portugal Reality Portugal advanced Portugal 2, Croatia 1
Prediction matched the advancing team.Round of 32 K-84 Prediction vs reality
Pregame Spain 84.0% Austria 16.0% Lean: Spain Reality Spain advanced Spain 3, Austria 0
Prediction matched the advancing team.Round of 32 K-81 Prediction vs reality
Pregame United States 76.1% Bosnia & Herzegovina 23.9% Lean: United States Reality United States advanced United States 2, Bosnia & Herzegovina 0
Prediction matched the advancing team.Round of 32 K-82 Prediction vs reality
Pregame Belgium 57.7% Senegal 42.3% Lean: Belgium Reality Belgium advanced Belgium 3, Senegal 2
Prediction matched the advancing team.Round of 32 K-76 Prediction vs reality
Pregame Brazil 68.5% Japan 31.5% Lean: Brazil Reality Brazil advanced Brazil 2, Japan 1
Prediction matched the advancing team.Round of 32 K-78 Prediction vs reality
Pregame Côte d'Ivoire 42.1% Norway 57.9% Lean: Norway Reality Norway advanced Côte d'Ivoire 1, Norway 2
Prediction matched the advancing team.Round of 32 K-79 Prediction vs reality
Pregame Mexico 59.1% Ecuador 40.9% Lean: Mexico Reality Mexico advanced Mexico 2, Ecuador 0
Prediction matched the advancing team.Round of 32 K-80 Prediction vs reality
Pregame England 84.1% DR Congo 15.9% Lean: England Reality England advanced England 2, DR Congo 1
Prediction matched the advancing team.Round of 32 K-86 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Round of 32 K-88 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Round of 32 K-85 Prediction vs reality
Pregame Switzerland 63.6% Algeria 36.4% Lean: Switzerland Reality Switzerland advanced Switzerland 2, Algeria 0
Prediction matched the advancing team.Round of 32 K-87 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Round of 16
Round of 16 K-89 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Round of 16 K-90 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Round of 16 K-93 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Round of 16 K-94 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Round of 16 K-91 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Round of 16 K-92 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Round of 16 K-95 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Round of 16 K-96 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Quarterfinals
Quarterfinals K-97 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Quarterfinals K-98 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Quarterfinals K-99 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Quarterfinals K-100 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Semifinals
Semifinals K-101 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Semifinals K-102 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Final / third
Final K-104 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.
Third place K-103 Left Chance this team reaches this match. Right Chance this team wins the displayed matchup. Win odds use each team's wins among simulations where it reaches this slot. 100,000 simulations feed this forecast.