TC TrophyCast

FIFA World Cup 2026 · live bracketcaster

Who wins the World Cup?

Track title odds, knockout paths, group state, and what-if scenarios from one reproducible forecast artifact. How it works ->

100,000 simulations 72/72 group matches 13/32 knockout matches trophycast-0.1.0 model 7/3/2026, 5:19:26 AM
100,000 simulations loaded.

Qualification race

Who is through, who is out, and what every team needs to reach the Round of 32, including through the eight best third-placed teams. Click a team to track its route.

Race for the eight best thirds

12 groups · 8 advance
TeamGrpPtsGD3rdAdv
1 DR CongoK4.0+1100%100%
2 EcuadorE4.00100%100%
3 SwedenF4.00100%100%
4 GhanaL4.00100%100%
5 Bosnia & HerzegovinaB4.0-1100%100%
6 ParaguayD4.0-2100%100%
7 AlgeriaJ4.0-2100%100%
8 SenegalI3.0+2100%100%
8 of these 12 third-place teams advance
9 IranG3.00100%0%
10 South KoreaA3.0-1100%0%
11 ScotlandC3.0-3100%0%
12 UruguayH2.0-1100%0%

Best-third cutoff

100,000 simulations
4 pts +1 GD 100%
4 pts 0 GD 100%
4 pts -1 GD 100%
4 pts -2 GD 100%
3 pts +2 GD 100%
3 pts 0 GD 0%
3 pts -1 GD 0%
3 pts -3 GD 0%
2 pts -1 GD 0%

By group

Top 2 plus 8 best thirds advance

Group A

2 through

Group B

3 through

Group C

2 through

Group D

3 through

Group E

3 through

Group F

3 through

Group G

2 through

Group H

2 through

Group I

3 through

Group J

3 through

Group K

3 through

Group L

3 through